Psephology and the Labor/Greens affinity

Now, this is a twisty-turny calculation by psephologist Antony Green.  He has examined last preference allocations in the last NSW election. 

The conclusion?  ... amongst Labor voters only 2.3% put the Greens last, while amongst Green voters, only 1.8% put Labor last. Voters clearly view the two parties as ideologically close.

Can't help wondering if this closeness (and my guess is this conclusion fits for the whole of Oz) can also mean that the dissatisfaction of so many Labor voters with the Labor opposition - because of their poor history (since 1992) on the subject of  refugees and Labor's lack of sensible forward thinking and planning on Climate Change - will make it easy for Labor voters to switch to the Greens and thus provide a substantial increase in the Green vote - and perhaps more House of Reps seats - at the 2015 face-off.

Victorian Election 2014 - Wendouree candidates : How preferential voting can allow the subversion of a popular vote.

State Election 2014: Wendouree District Candidates

Candidates are listed in the order in which they will appear on the Lower House ballot paper for Wendouree District.

Candidates in ballot paper order

7 candidates		Contact details
HASTIE, Liam SEX PARTY		Vicki Nash Business Hours: (03) 9347 2332 Mobile: 0411 107 040 meteorthoroughbreds@bigpond.com
KNIGHT, Sharon AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY		Sharon Knight Mobile: 0491 115 845 Sharon.Knight@vic.alp.org.au
O'SHEA, Sheila RISE UP AUSTRALIA PARTY		Sandra Caddy Business Hours: (03) 8795 7544 Mobile: 0418 584 868 sandracaddy@hotmail.com
FENN, Cielo FAMILY FIRST		Shane Clark Business Hours: (03) 9010 6110 admin@familyfirstvictoria.org.au
COLTMAN, Craig LIBERAL		Craig Coltman Mobile: 0408 178 511 craig.coltman@vic.liberal.org.au
BARNES, Alice AUSTRALIAN GREENS		Victorian Greens Business Hours: (03) 9602 1141
BUCHHOLZ, John AUSTRALIAN COUNTRY ALLIANCE		Garry Kerr After Hours: (03) 5261 3866 Mobile: 0412 586 925 garry.kerr@auscountryalliance.org

The ballot paper order in my electorate was decided this afternoon. 

First, let me state that I dislike proportional and preferential voting. I am old fashioned is one reason. The other thing is that I don't trust any system that is not readily and totally understood by every voter and I don't trust any system that can be rigged. 

Networkers might find that last statement a bit over the top in nice, democratic Australia but, having spent half a lifetime in the not nice and undemocratic police state of Queensland under Joh Bjelke-Petersen, I know how preferential voting can be rigged. This is why I think we should only have to put a number 1 on the ballot paper. 

When an athletic race is run, there is no fiddling with numbers to declare a winner. We know with our own eyes who has won - it is the one who has done the best and come first. I live in the electoral district of Wendouree and I am not asserting that the ballot here is rigged - but I want to show how preferential voting can allow the subversion of a popular vote. 

The ballot paper for the seat of Wendouree - published above -  has seven candidates. Of the seven candidates, the majority (4) are from conservative parties: the Liberals, the Australian Country Alliance (somewhere to the far right of the very right National Party); and two conservative Christian parties - Family First and Rise Up Australia. On the progressive side of the ledger are the Sex Party, the Australian Labor Party and the Australian Greens. 

If we had first past the post voting, some of these parties would not be on the ballot paper but because we have the magical thinking of preferential voting, they are a preference. They can lock up their preferences to make it easier for someone of their own conservative brand of politics simply by stacking the ballot paper. 

Wendouree has an excellent sitting member in the person of Sharon Knight (NB: there has been an electoral redistribution. Sharon is currently the member for Ballarat West. This seat is no more and so she is standing in the new seat of Wendouree). Her credentials are excellent. She is visible and active. Her office is helpful and active too - a major, but often overlooked, component in sound political representation. 

As one more interference in participatory democracy, we have in Victoria the horror of an upper house. Here my prejudice is in-built and intergenerational. As someone who grew up in the unicameral state of Queensland where the Upper House was abolished back in 1922 and who lived for a number of years in the Northern Territory which has never had an upper house, I find the doubling up of legislatures simply to provide a place for would-bes if they could-bes expensive and self-serving. 

So we suffer through this rorting - praying that proven competence will win the popular, but rigged, vote.

Australia needs an economy that supports life – not pollutes it.

From Paul Sinclair at the Australian Conservation Foundation ~~~~

Brigid,

 

ACF had a simple story to tell before the federal election. Australia needs an economy that supports life – not pollutes it. We need clean energy, a safe climate, and a strong future for the indigenous people and ecosystems of Northern Australia.

Welcome to thousands of new supporters who jumped in during the election campaign. And for those with us for months, years, and decades, thank you. 

Our national media didn’t get around to covering the environment during the election. Disappointing. Even so, we reached hundreds of thousands of Australians online.

 

 

It was no surprise that the Coalition won enough seats in the House of Representatives to form Government. But no one took bets on the Australian Sports Party or the Motoring Enthusiasts grabbing comfy Senate seats for the next six years. Seven independent senators might get elected.

 

The Senate is critical because it has the power to protect or repeal laws to reduce pollution or safeguard our environment. We’ll need your help telling the story of our economy and our environment to the new Senators and local representatives over coming months. 

 

Across the environment movement groups are joining forces on climate and environmental laws. On big issues – like the Coalition’s plan to roll back World Heritage protection for Tasmania’s forests – industry, union and environment groups are working together. These are good signs.

 

I have a post-it note on my desk with a quote from Nelson Mandela scrawled on it,

 

“Time and again, conflicts are resolved through shifts that were unimaginable at the start”.

Now is the time to reach out and form new alliances, creating new stories of the kind of world we want to live in.

What are the environmental issues that matter most to you?

Leave a comment and I'll weigh in on how ACF is tackling these issues. 

 

JOIN THE DISCUSSION 

 

Dr Paul Sinclair

Director of Environmental Campaigns

 

If you think of every dollar you spend as a vote, there is still a lot of stuff to vote for or against!

So this week we have a new Prime Minister...

Whether or not the outcome of the election is what you hoped for, never forget that your 'vote' remains immensely powerful. And you need not wait three years to exercise it...

A vote today to walk past the cage eggs in the supermarket can save a hen from a life of misery in a battery cage.

A vote against factory farmed products will bring pigs confined in crates so small they cannot turn around, one important step closer to freedom.

A vote to bypass the pet shop and adopt your next four legged family member from an animal shelter will give a loving cat or dog a second chance.

A vote to treat yourself to dairy-free chocolate, yoghurt and ice creams will help save a dairy calf from a trip to the abattoir at just 5 days of age.

A vote to reduce or replace the animal products in your shopping trolley next week could save lives and help save the planet.

A vote to teach kindness to children will pay dividends for generations.

And a vote to stay the course with us and be a voice for our fellow species will speed the day when all animals are afforded the respect and compassion they so desperately deserve.

Thank you, in every way, on every day, for voting for a kinder world!

The Animals Australia team.

P.S. The change in government has only strengthened our resolve to campaign vigorously on behalf of animals in the live export trade. We'd like to share our thoughts with you about the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. Click here to read more  »

2013 - The Year of the Conscience Vote; The Age recommends Labor; the spirit of Cronulla comes to Canberra; liberty, justice, equity, compassion, openness.

The Age believes in economic and social progress, in liberty and justice, in equity and compassion, and openness of government. We believe the role of government is to build a strong, fair nation for future generations, and not to pander to sectional interests. It is with these values in mind that we endorse the Labor Party in this important election.

Just wanting to make sure that people did not miss out on seeing this 

from The Age in Melbourne.  

Clearly, the Fairfax Press remains independent considering 

Roger Corbett's display on Lateline a couple of nights ago 

when he spoke, it seemed, directly from

the Liberal politicians' sheet of talking points.

I'm a great believer in natural justice and I believe that we reap what we sow.  Australia is on a tipping point in my view.  We can choose compassion and inclusion or we can demonstrate that we are truly insular and xenophobic and worse.    I believe that leaders of a nation are duty-bound to bring out the best in their people - not to pander and grandstand to bigotry, racism, sexism and greed. To-morrow as individuals we can choose to coalesce around national ideals of decency and a fair go, of honesty and unselfishness.  I know that many who read this will agree with just about everything I have said in this paragraph.  I know there will be some for whom, like me, decisions at this election are fraught.

In case Networkers had not figured it out yet -  I am died-in-the-wool Labor.  I was a member of the ALP for about three decades.  I believe in trade unions - and even in retirement I am still a union member.  My history goes back to the 1970s when I was an activist against the Vietnam War and Apartheid in South Africa. I was the first woman appointed to be an AWU organiser in Northern Australia and only the second woman appointed in AWU history.  I am not a member of the ALP any more and have not been for more than a decade.  I am no longer a member of any political party.  I resigned my ALP membership in the early 2000s because of certain circumstances in my life at the time.  However, if I had not left when I did, I would have soon after because of Kim Beazley and Tampa. In short, I belong to a small - and perhaps invisible - faction: Rusted on Labor that Sometimes Votes Green.

There is no way in the world that I could reward Labor with my No. 1 vote in 2013.  I want to see others mark Labor down for its lack of compassion and its destruction of many Labor values.  I want the ALP to note that there are things that "up with these we shall not put"!!!  So last Friday when I voted early because I will be out of my electorate this week-end, I chose to give my No. 1 to The Greens and my No. 2 to Labor.  (Apologies to Catherine King, Member for Ballarat and Minister for Minister for Regional Australia, Local Government and Territories. Catherine is an excellent local member.) 

As perhaps never before - or at least for a long time - this needs to be The Year of the Conscience Vote.  The LibNats have brought our national conversation into disrepute.  The spirit of Cronulla has come to Canberra - not only in the person of Scott Morrison (what a contrast from Bruce Baird) but in bringing the racism, antagonism, bigotry and xenophobia displayed in the Cronulla riots to our national capital and our national conversation.  Since when did it behove Australia's national leaders to stir up such sentiments - and I haven't even mentioned sexism and misogyny?  Perhaps we'd have to go back to Billy Hughes for that.  

The ACF's Senate scorecard on the environment. Choose carefully - the Land of Oz needs your thought and care.

Do you want to see all parties’ environment policies compared?

ACF has released a Senate scorecard, rating the commitments of the main Senate players – and potential key players, like Clive Palmer and Bob Katter – on environmental issues that will require laws to be passed by the Senate.

We've done a full independent assessment of the parties’ environment policies. The decisions of the next Senate will be crucial for Australia’s environment. So how do the main Senate contenders stack up?

Read the policy comparison now.

www.action.org.au/election

You can see our Senate scorecard at a glance. Want detail? Dig deeper, and you’ll find plenty. Just click through to explore the summary of our full analysis. Parties were consulted and given a chance to respond to our issues. Chances are some parties won’t be happy with our assessment. But you expect us to assess how policies will impact on the environment. Then it’s up to you to make your call.

Will the new Senate work for the environment? They will have the power to make decisions about laws to price pollution, invest in clean energy, protect the places we love, and to keep our amazing ocean reserves.
All Australians who care about the environment should carefully consider their Senate vote.

You care, so get informed then share this on.

Your environment, your call.

READ, COMPARE, then SHARE.

Don

Don Henry

CEO

PS. We’re also shouting out for Tasmanian forests with a full page ad in tomorrow’s Australian. AND we’re running an online ad campaign that's already given more than a million people the chance to see our Senate scorecard before Saturday. Will you help us? 100,000 ACF supporters are reading this message. Together, your networks are huge. Will you FORWARD or SHARE this message.

Read the scorecard

Join Richard Di Natale for lunch at the Europa in Ballarat to-day - 12.30pm

The 2013 Federal Election could be called the fact-checking election ... but will it make huge headlines and a difference?

The Network's long-standing friend, Denis Wilson from Robertson in the Southern Highlands of NSW writes:

Current ads running from APPEA tell us of the wonderful job they’re doing and how they’ve created 100,000 jobs in Australia last year.  In other ads tell us that “the people who don’t care about jobs” are trying to stop them.

Have a look at the statistics from The Australia Institute where they inform us of the truth,  the oil and gas industry only created 9372 jobs.  But it gets worse,  it is well known that mining is killing agricultural and manufacturing jobs – Australia lost 24,713 farming jobs and 25,472 manufacturing jobs last year, sure they wouldn’t all have been because of mining, but how many were? - http://www.tai.org.au/

Thanks to The Australia Institute

Denis Wilson
Thou shall not steal from future generations by impoverishing or poisoning the Earth.

"The Nature of Robertson"
www.peonyden.blogspot.com.au

Further reading:

Fact fight back

The Australia Institute on Facebook

The Australia Institute on Twitter

Christine Milne hits Ballarat to-morrow - TAFE topix at University of Ballarat in the day' Food policy at St Anne's Winery at night.

From John Stanger:

Hello fellow education advocates!

Meet Greens Leader Senator Christine Milne in Ballarat tomorrow as she meets with students and staff at Ballarat University as part of the Greens’ campaign to stop Labor’s $2.8 billion cuts to universities.  

The Greens have offered the following funded and costed policies for the election so far:

Prioritise TAFE: $1.2 billion TAFE rescue package that is quarantined for TAFE, not private providers: http://www.greens.org.au/TAFE
Investing in Universities: reverse Labor's $2.3 billion uni cuts and increase base funding per student by 10% http://greens.org.au/investing-universities
More school funding sooner: An extra $2 billion over the forward estimates on top of the government's $3 billion to help bring public schools up to the Schooling Resource Standard sooner. Additional funding will be directed to where it is needed most, including better assistance for kids with a disability: http://greens.org.au/school-funding

It's a rare chance to meet the Australian Greens leader Christine Milne here in Ballarat and you're all invited!

Join Christine for her media conference followed by a chance to chat and hear more:

WHO: Greens Leader Senator Christine Milne and the candidate for Ballarat Stephanie Hodgins-May and Ballarat University students.

WHERE: Library courtyard at Ballarat University, Mt Helen Campus

WHEN: 12.15pm TOMORROW Thursday 22 August

FOLLOWED BY: 12:30-1:30pm informal meet and greet with Christine Milne in The Hub Bistro, Albert Coates Building, UB Mt Helen campus.

If that's not enough, feel free to join Christine Milne, Senator Richard Di Natale and Stephanie Hodgins-May to Celebrate Australian Food with a free event at St Anne's Winery in Myrniong. 6:30pm, light food and a complimentary drink (local of course) provided.

Here's the Facebook event: https://www.facebook.com/events/557787730947181/?fref=ts

RSVP for the Celebration of Australian Food by email to: foodplanrsvp@vic.greens.org.au

Thank you, apologies for the partisan post but the intention is to connect with you and bring us together rather than spruik the Greens.

Hope you can join us,

Jon Stanger

0415 755 181

Central Victoria Refugee Support groups take the fight for humanity rather than inhumanity up to the LibNats and Labor

From Terry White in Bendigo ~~~

Picture below from here

Dear Friends

We desperately need our political parties to RETURN TO HUMANITY in their treatment of asylum seekers.

Can you let us (the working group of Central Victorian Refugee Support groups) know which of the politicians on the attached contact list you've spoken to or have written to ?

Today at 2pm, our working group meets in Castlemaine to discuss what more we can do, and we want to be certain that every one of our Central Victorian politicians and candidates knows that we expect them to distance themselves from the harsh liberal and labor policies on asylum seekers in the lead up to the election.

Fortunately, some Labor politicians and union leaders are beginning to do just that.

1) The Age article regarding ALP Federal election politicians and candidates speaking out against the PNG solution and vowing to fight against it. 

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/labor-disquiet-at-hardline-png-solution-20130814-2rvjw.html. 

2) Australian Financial Review article on ACTU position on Asylum Seekers and off shore processing 

http://m.afr.com/p/national/politics/unions_split_from_labor_on_png_solution_uJZfprGdlwrN04X0lNPZ9L

Also encouraging was last weeks joint statement, ENOUGH IS ENOUGH by non-government organisations (including our Castlemaine and Daylesford RAR groups)  (see attached)

What are your thoughts on what more can we do?

Do you have any good news stories we could share with our friends on the Forum contact list?

Any responses from the churches or other organisations?

Any good press coverage or interviews?

Is there any way we can get the sitting members and candidates to let the public know where they stand on asylum seeker policies at public meetings in Bendigo and Ballarat?

Could this be done through the Bendigo and Ballarat TV channels or through ABC regional radio in these two centres?

What are your thoughts?

Warm regards

Terry White

Working group of Central Victorian refugee support groups.

PS: I've written to the Prime Minister and the Minister for Immigration (no response) and to Dan Tehan the member for Wannon asking for a meeting with Maryborough RAR reps (no response as yet).

I've also written to all our Forum speakers asking if they would endorse our return to humanity statement (endorsements from Louise Newman, Julian Burnside and Janet Rice are attached)

5 attachments — Download all attachments  

RAR AND MP CONTACTS.doc 41K   View   Download   Clip to Evernote

JANET RICE.doc 1362K   View   Download   Clip to Evernote

ENDORSEMENT BY LOUISE.doc 35K   View   Download   Clip to Evernote

ENOUGH IS ENOUGH.pdf 91K   View   Download   Clip to Evernote

JULIAN BURNSIDE.pdf 139K   View   Download   Clip to Evernote

Australian Federal Election 2013 - 2: Aboriginal people can speak for themselves & Oz's First Nations Political Party is doing just that at this election

The material in this post has come from my friend, Georgina Gartland ~~~

Friends 

I am sending some information along to your information.  If you are in the N.T Australia. or have links there please read.

Rosalie Kunoth-Monks OAM carried the report Loss of Rights, to the Committee for the Elimination of Racial Discrimination at the UN in Geneva in 2010.  For several years now Rosalie has visited areas in the N.T. including Darwin and other Capital cities around Australia-Canberra, South Australia, Melbourne and Sydney and shared publicly her insights into the impacts of the NT Intervention on her people. She has grave concerns regarding the trauma that has been created and she has openly called on Government to change its approach and to return control to the communities.  Some Intervention  policies were extended for another 10 years under Stronger Futures legislation and other more punitive measures were introduced  in July 2012, despite widespread concerns.

Rosalie has decided to stand as a NT candidate for the Senate in an attempt to have her voice and the voice of first nations peoples heard more widely. You may be interested in Tuesday’s NITV news brief  http://www.sbs.com.au/news/video/42014787717/Rosalie-Monks-makes-NT-Senate-bid . I have heard Rosalie speak on numerous occasions and am helping on a personal level.

 Rosalie is standing under the umbrella of Australia’s First Political Party.  Her policies are attached/ below. If when you read them, you feel able to support her by either a donation to help cover her basic costs and or in helping throughout the election campaign e.g.  by circulating her policies onto  your N.T. contacts that would be wonderful.

Policy positions for Australia’s First Nations Political Party.

1. Roll back the effects of the intervention

Return control to Northern Territory communities to prioritise their own agendas, bring back the permit system, reinstate all full benefits and abolish compulsory basic cards, introduce a voluntary system similar to the Arnhem Land Progress Association’s food card. 

Re instate bilingual education in schools.

Re- direct the $109 million dollars spent in Canberra on managing basic cards to housing and amenities for Northern Territory remote communities.

2. Treaties

Recognise First Nations people’s rightful place in our traditional countries and establish a process for individual nations and traditional owners to negotiate specific treaties directly with the Government.

3. Caring for Country

Privileging traditional methods of caring for our environment by maintaining culture, language and ceremony in order to keep the country strong and our food and water sources secure.

We are opposed to the plan to house nuclear waste at Muckaty Station and techniques such as Fracking that can have lasting and irreversible effects on the Land and Environment.

Working together as a nation to actively reduce our carbon emissions as part of our global responsibility.

4. Cultural diversity

We stand for inclusiveness and celebrate cultural diversity in its many forms, this includes having compassion towards people seeking asylum in this country and other cultures already here.

That we celebrate our cultural diversity, multiple heritages and shared responsibilities by embracing traditional and contemporary cultures and values.

5. Economic development

That the Aboriginal Benefits Account be handed over to the Territory and administered by First Nations organisations for community purposes and business development opportunities for community groups, and individuals.

Create genuine opportunities for economic development through joint business ventures that are based on relationships, mutual respect and joint reciprocity.

There is an official poster that could be printed for N.T. Communities/ for venues around the NT/ NT polling booths on election day.  Please let me know if you would like this and if you live in the NT are able to help on election day or prior e.g. with how to vote cards , leaflet distribution etc.  Much help is required.  I can send material electronically-which you may print / forward on (an enormous help) or if required arrange for copies to go by mail. Postal details would be required asap  if they are to reach more remote locations in the N.T. on time; helping to get material out as far as possible is important .

A special account has been set up for Rosalie by her daughter to accept donations to cover Rosalie’s basic campaign costs.  I will send details on request.

Please get back to me if you can help in any way.

Thank You for your consideration

Australian Federal Election 2013 - 1 : Are the bad old days of the police state of Queensland being relived and rechannelled through Christian micro-parties?

The above text is part of a Facebook conversation
in which Miss Eagle has been involved.

I had noted myself, in just three seats - Ballarat, Bendigo and Murray - the large number of candidates and, in particular, the rush to electoral greatness/madness of so-called "Christian" parties.

Democracy is a wonderful thing. Elections should be open to all comers. However one does have to question what is occurring. In the Ballarat seat, where there are ten candidates, three are from "Christian" parties. There are no independents.

Why is this? The $1,000 deposit to nominate? People think the Parliamentary Secretary, Cathering King, is a shoe-in?

I just wonder if there is any helping hand for the "Christian" parties from the LibNats so that their preferences can be carefully guided?  In fact, this conservative support which undoubtedly will benefit the LibNats preferrentially, reminds me of the bad old days in the police state of Queensland under Joh Bjelke-Petersen.  In some seats, the Queensland National Party used to run two candidates so it could prevent any inadvertent preference leakage.  Not only was the state gerry-mandered, the whole voting process was manipulated.

As for "a dose of the Santamarias", I think it is more likely a dose of the Tea Party and the GOP.  It's a darn pity these people don't focus more carefully on the good news of Jesus rather than their own self-image, self-promotion, and self-righteousness.

Electoral affairs - seat of Ballarat: 4 women; 6 men; 3 public "Christians"; 1 sexologist; 2 egocentric parties; 1 conservative party parading as progressive; 2 LibLabs; 1 modern moderate party. Spoiled for choice?

Please note: 
two candidates are missing from these photographs of candidates in 
the Federal seat of Ballarat.
They are: Ana Rojas (but I found a Twitter site which I think is hers) and
Joshua Mathieson for whom I couldn't find a web presence.
Miss Eagle's view is that, in this day and age, when a candidate
can't rustle up a photograph in time for declaration day
there's something up - like coercing people in to make up the numbers.
If any Networkers have found a web presence for these two please be in touch.
~~~~~

This afternoon, the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) released the names of candidates running in House of Representatives seats and their position on the HoR ballot papers.  

According to Ballarat's daily paper, The Courier, this is what the ballot papers for the seat of Ballarat will look like on election day, September 7:

·         1. Foster, Anne - Australian Christians

·         2. Rojas, Ana - Rise up Australia

·         3. Dunne, Shane - Katter's Australia Party

·         4. Mathieson, Joshua - Sex Party

·         5. Hodgins-May, Stephanie - Australian Greens

·         6. Fitzgibbon, John - Liberal Party

·         7. Vereker, Stephen - Democratic Labor Party

·         8. Murphy, Gerard - Palmer United Party

·         9. Clark, Shane - Family First

·         10. King, Catherine - Australia Labor Party

For the moment, I will leave Networkers who live in Ballarat to figure this out for themselves.  Over the next few weeks I plan to go through things with you - in a quite opinionated way, of course - to give some of my own insights on this state of affairs.  I hope you will answer me back affirmatively or negatively to give your own thoughts on the matter.  For those who can't be civil, please note abuse and bad language will not be tolerated.  It is expected that people will have a sufficient command of the English language to allow full expression of their thoughts anywhere on the spectrum without being insulting.