Saturday, 12 September 2015

Psephology and the Labor/Greens affinity

Now, this is a twisty-turny calculation by psephologist Antony Green.  He has examined last preference allocations in the last NSW election

The conclusion?  ... amongst Labor voters only 2.3% put the Greens last, while amongst Green voters, only 1.8% put Labor last. Voters clearly view the two parties as ideologically close.

Can't help wondering if this closeness (and my guess is this conclusion fits for the whole of Oz) can also mean that the dissatisfaction of so many Labor voters with the Labor opposition - because of their poor history (since 1992) on the subject of  refugees and Labor's lack of sensible forward thinking and planning on Climate Change - will make it easy for Labor voters to switch to the Greens and thus provide a substantial increase in the Green vote - and perhaps more House of Reps seats - at the 2015 face-off.

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